Having got into the essence of different strategies, a beginner understands that he has to play with very low indices, using conditional odds and ends. This is a method, of course, but not the safest one, it is too dependent on luck and combinatorics, how pros and cons are built up in the end over the distance. Most sensible strategies require rather high odds, starting from 1.50-1.60, and preferably close to two. They allow making profit due to probability in case we use flat and avoiding long losing streaks in case we use one of the “catch-up” variants. In this review, we will talk about the principles you need to know, understand, and use as a betting man to succeed in flirting with high odds.
WHAT IS HIGH ODDS
Before we get into the nuances of finding high betting odds, we need to define the terms and clear boundaries of the concept of ‘high odds’. When it comes to numbers and their characteristics, questions immediately arise: how big is big compared to what? So let’s first find out the boundaries between which the high-stakes sector lies.
Single independent betting odds for “flat”, percentage of bank, fixed income strategies are usually played with odds from 1.50-1.60 to 2.00-2.20. Of course some bettors try to play with odds closer to 3.00 and above, such as betting on draws or various combinations of outcomes. But this is only a small proportion of the total mass. The vast majority, both amateurs and professionals, operate in this range.
As for strategies such as Martingale and other versions of “sweepstakes” of varying degrees of softness, it is recommended to take higher odds. The ideal is considered values of 2.00, but is allowed to decrease to 1.70-1.80. Lower than 1.70-1.75 is not recommended because at such ratios one has to increase the sums too sharply in the late steps of sweepstakes.
Thus quotations between 1.50 and 2.20 fit in with the concept of high odds. about ways of finding suitable events for these figures we will talk about below.
A SIMPLE CONDITION PLUS AN EDGE OVER THE LINE
LIVE BETTING
Seasoned bettors probably remember how the betting business got started. In the beginning, there were land-based betting shops where lines were printed on a piece of paper, selected outcomes had to be dictated by a cashier and there was at most one television in the room.
When considering methods of taking high odds, it is worth going from the simple to the complex. Playing with such substantial odds, any sane bettor wants maximum reliability. Therefore, the first on the list will always be betting on the simplest and most reliable conditions.
If we consider the most popular sport for betting, football, the betting conditions include:
- Nil handicaps;
- Double odds (1X, X2);
- Goal of the team (ITB 0.5);
- Individual total more than 1 goal.
As you can see, the list is not rich. Two variants of betting on the main outcomes of matches, and not simple, but insured in case of a draw. That is not just a win for the selected team, but two outcomes out of three will not let you lose. In the case of a handicap (0), there will be a refund in the case of a draw, and in the case of double odds, a win in the case of a draw or a win for the chosen team. It is for covering two out of three options that these sports betting conditions have earned the designation as the easiest and most reliable. Not surprisingly, it is these markets that are most in demand among experienced and professional football bettors.
As for the other two given outcomes, they require only one goal from the desired team to not lose. One goal is the simplest action, an event in a football match. All teams strive for goals, because without them you can’t win. So, predicting one goal from a team is the easiest thing to do. And this bet is even more logical than the total match total of more than one goal. The thing is that on such a small total TB, the odds are usually very low. Some players try to play staircases in live betting under such conditions. But such a safety net, like we don’t know exactly who is going to score a goal, is just indicative of this ignorance. It is much more correct to look at a specific team and take a more sane odds for its individual total. As for the classic total totals over or under 2.5 – these are complicated bets, with multiple conditions, another story.
Consider these simple types of bets in the context of the 1.50-2.20 range given earlier. Let’s try these outcomes on both the lower and upper limit.
A handicap of zero for 1.50 will be offered in a match where the respective side’s win is given as about 1.95-2.10. This is a reasonable safety net if a draw is seen as a very likely scenario by the player.
A similar condition, only at higher odds, for 1.80-1.95, will be given in matches in which the bookmaker does not single out even a relative favourite, considers the confrontation equal (or simply wants to form such an opinion among the players). If a bookmaker predicts a high chance of one team’s victory in a match as close as this one, it would not be wise to gamble on a fair play for 2.40-2.60. It’s safer to play a zero handicap for a high enough odds.
As for double odds, even 1.50 indicates that it is the side of the relative underdog. And even more so if the odds for that condition are close to 2.00. It takes a strong argument, a disagreement with the bookmaker’s opinion, to play such quotations for a double chance. Often a higher odds on X2 is given precisely because of the visitors’ status. If the bettor is confident in the selected team, it can be a great decision to take with insurance against a draw.
The only goal of the team for 1.50 clearly indicates the lack of confidence in the performance of the team in question. And if the odds are even higher, that’s an even bigger deal. This often happens in games between a favourite and an underdog. Often the favourites are overestimated and the underdogs are overpriced, while the underdogs are overpriced. That’s when you manage to catch a fairly high odds for just one goal, and a very likely one at that. But this bet is not tied to the main outcomes at all, which makes it extremely attractive. A single goal does not put any claim on the odds. The selected side may lose 5-1, but the scored goal will draw the player’s bet.
If you make the conditions a little more complicated, taking ITB (1), the possibilities of scoring a sufficiently high odds increase considerably. This bet will also only lose if the selected team scores a “go-ahead”. If exactly 1 goal happens, there will be a return. For a win you need 2 goals, same as for ITB (1.5), but here you need to be careful. An odds ratio of 1.50 for ITB (1) is also possible for a relative favorite or one of the tied teams. It is not uncommon to find quotes of 1.70-1.90 for this condition, especially for away games. Meanwhile, a lot of clubs are capable of scoring even away, it is not that difficult to calculate.
The main secret of remote success in betting on such simple outcomes, is to outscore the line. That is, the player analyses the match and assesses the probability of a particular outcome higher than the bookmaker’s odds indicate. These are the so-called jackpot bets. Such betting conditions at high odds usually manage to take in games of the so-called hidden favourites. It is there that many of the actions from these “dark horses” are priced too high by the bookmakers. Often the overvaluation is due to the crowd’s belief in the opposing team, the clear favourite. Well, so much the better for the competent bettor going against the crowd. Bottom line, simple outcomes and overweight are the formula for the most profitable bets with high odds on football, and indeed on other disciplines.
COMPLICATED CONDITION
Football betting odds are obviously very diverse, and the four market varieties mentioned above are only a small fraction. And many of the extremely common types of football betting have not yet been mentioned. But the rest of the pool of conditions, you can not call simple. So let us analyze them in the context of high odds.
SINGLE BET WITH COMPLEX CONDITIONS
The following types of football betting can be mentioned in this sub-block:
- Team win;
- Draw;
- Handicap (-1);
- Handicap (+1);
- Total more than 2.5;
- Total less than 2.5;
- Both to Score – Yes;
- Total yellow cards over 4.5;
- Total corners over 8.5.
The list could go on for quite some time, but it is enough to understand the trends.
Why such a widespread bet as a win has fallen into the category of difficult bets? It’s because such a bet only comes in with one outcome out of three. A win between 1.50 and 2.00 indicates a very sure or a relative favorite in the match. Such conditions are in practice of many bettors. The main thing here is still the same condition of the ratio of the bookmaker’s odds and the player’s confidence in his choice. If the calculated probability calculated by the bettor is higher or comparable to that which the bookmaker has put in his odds, it is possible to play. If the odds are considerably low – you should not take such a bet. And not only that, but any other bet on the side of the underdog team. Just go for another match.
Some bettors focus on draws, “X”. Admittedly, this condition is also tricky, as it assumes only one of the three outcomes to win. Draws are quoted even higher, with values of 2.80-3.50 and more. There is one big problem with this bet. If the player views the game as a tie, then predicting a draw is very shaky, though logical. Such a bet only works remotely. The expectation is that, in fact, there will be enough tied scores to stay in the plus side of either a flat or a catch-up strategy. To make it so, one has to be a very serious analyst, acquire a “carload of experience”. Beginners will fly into the red, poking at a draw in a row in all matches, where the bookmaker puts close quotes on the victory of the parties, supposedly indicating the equality of the match. You can’t predict on the line, it’s a huge mistake for beginners and amateurs. In general, draw betting is a workable type of outcome, but only in capable hands.
The minus handicap option can be equated in terms of difficulty to a regular win. A handicap (-1) is an extremely close condition. It’s just that a one-goal difference will result in a comeback. Handicaps with tougher conditions should not be taken. Handicap (-1.5) and further, these are very adventurous conditions that, although they allow you to take high odds, but because of the detachment from the real motivation of the teams, they give a loss at a distance. You have to remember that in the vast majority of matches, either a 1-0 win or a 5-0 win is priced the same, for 3 points in the table. You can always find better and more reasonable conditions for taking high odds than handicaps bigger than “-1”.
A plus handicap can even cover three of the three possible major match outcomes. This uncertainty in at least two of the three is interpreted as a condition of betting difficulty. Usually a high figure, 1.50 or higher, can only be taken for an outsider’s plus handicap. And that’s about +1, and if +1.5, +2 or even more, so much the worse. Such bets can also be approached. Sometimes the underdog is unfairly undervalued, and high odds on its side can be taken advantage of. But again, it has to be done wisely.
A total match goal total of more than 2.5 is a typical difficult condition on a uniform outcome. You need 3 elementary events in the match – 3 goals – for this bet to go in. There is no limit as to who exactly should score these goals, but the number is not insignificant. Of course there are specialists who will give more on totals in the distance, especially in the minor leagues, where there is often an oversight by the bookmaker. However, this also only comes with experience. Having said that, TB is one of the favourite outcomes for newcomers. On it, among others, they intend to make their money in betting. Well, we would caution you against taking this condition as a simple one.
With a total of less than 2.5 it is somewhat easier. The match starts when the score is right. It takes at least 3 actions, 3 goals, to ruin such a bet. That being said, football teams are targeting these outcomes. Everyone needs goals, even the lowest and driest teams. So this is a different kind of outcome to a TB, but in terms of complexity they are comparable. Though that complexity is of a different nature.
“Both to Score – Yes” is another of the favourite bets of beginners. In fact, it is no easier than the overall total. There are also three conditions. Just 2 goals would be TB (1.5). But it is not for nothing that they give a much lower odds for it. The third condition must also be met for OZ to be valid: distribution of one goal from each team as a minimum. At the same time, the odds for this type of betting may vary within our working range: 1.50-2.00. Above a double OZ is rarely valued. As a rule, in games where there is really little chance of an exchange of balls. Very often “both goals scored” is underestimated. So you should take this option extremely cautiously when the prediction clearly leads to it, and there is confidence that the quote is adequate, not overly undervalued.
Also to the homogeneous complex outcomes we can safely include totals on various supporting statistical indicators. First on the list, of course, are the likes of yellow cards and corner kicks. Predicting fouls, as well as flank attacks and shots on goal in general, which usually lead to corners, is quite a work in progress. If you think about it, predicting these conditions is even easier and more profitable over a distance than regular goal totals.
SINGLE WITH LOW EXPECTED PAYOFF
In the bookmaker’s spreadsheet you can find such seemingly single odds conditions with high odds like:
- a goal by a specific player;
- a penalty in the match;
- penalties in the match;
- an exact set.
There are also other conditions close to the mentioned degree of absurdity. Indeed, many newcomers are led to high scores. However, one must understand that for such events, the office always underestimates the odds very much. If you bring in the term from probability theory, the mathematical expectation, it is much longer for these markets than the odds indicate. Roughly speaking, a quote of 20.00 indicates an expected run of this condition 5% of the time, while in reality the run will be 2-3% if not less. This will give an unavoidable disadvantage even in the short run, and things will only get worse over the distance. Never consider bets with conditions that cannot be predicted and can only be guessed.
A SINGLE WITH A COMBINATION OF HETEROGENEOUS CONDITIONS
You can also come across quite a few complex conditions in the football spreadsheet, combining outcomes of various kinds. Examples:
- Time/Match;
- Main outcome + total more or less;
- Main Outcome + Individual Total;
- Main Outcome + Both Scores;
- Both scores + total;
- Main outcome + player goal.
In fact, you can extend this list even further, as many betting shops give their exotic combinations. We have cited a very common set.
Yes, you can charge high odds for such terms, like ordinaries, even if simply for total, win or both to score, they offer very modest quotes. The only problem with these combo bets is that they are express bets. Yes, it’s pretty much the same as express bets. Only the latter are assembled from conditions in different matches, whereas here we have a set within a single match. Usually, the aim of newbies, when taking bets of this kind, is the urge to up the ante. In fact, only some of the included conditions are viewed from the prediction, the rest are hinged simply on the residual principle, to be there to raise the odds. Needless to say, such a hike leads to a disadvantage. It is better to refuse thoughtlessly burdening the bet with additional conditions. Don’t bet at all. Wait for the match, where they will offer a decent odds for a simple and straightforward condition.
Perhaps only combinations of “OZ + TB” find a place in the practice of successful bettors. But this is understandable. The wager, although complex, combines similar conditions, goals.
EXPRESS
Betting on sporting events is deservedly considered one of the most popular pastimes that attracts fans all over the world. For this reason, this industry is growing steadily – every year there are new betting shops that try to attract customers with wide lines, tempting odds, bonus systems, etc.
While we’re on the subject of single odds, why not put together high odds from different matches? After all, two small odds, when multiplied in a parlay, give already a decent enough size to be a substitute for an order in most strategies. The question is a logical one. Many people do.
It is bad practice to put together very large expresses from small odds components. By multiplying the margins of each outcome, the chances of winning such a parlay are substantially lower than an order with similar odds. However, in small “presets” of 2-3 events, this effect is not so noticeable. So it is quite possible to practice such complex bets. As outcomes it is advisable to take the most reliable betting conditions, previously mentioned zero handicaps, double odds, ITB 0.5 or 1, reinsured totals with a margin.
CONCLUSIONS
High odds betting can be done in a lot of different ways in football. We’ve outlined this wide range of options for you, with the associated benefits and risks. You now know which betting conditions should not be considered at all, which can be used with high confidence, valuables odds, and which can be used most massively, because of their simplicity and reliability at the distance.
